Caribbean Hurricane Risk by Country
Pick a destination and a month within hurricane season (June–November) to see the chance a hurricane affects any given 5-night stay.
Hurricane risk overall by month
Average 5-night hurricane proximity risk across all 33 tracked destinations, by month.
Historically most risky overall
All 33 destinations ranked by combined June–November 5-night hurricane proximity risk, highest to lowest.
Typical tropical cyclone occurrence areas by month
NOAA’s official Atlantic hurricane climatology maps, embedded directly from the National Hurricane Center. Each map shows the number of hurricanes whose centers passed within 150 nautical miles of a point during a 100-year period, based on the 1944–2020 (77-year) best-track record.
Source: NOAA National Hurricane Center — Tropical Cyclone Climatology. Images are hosted by NOAA and loaded live from nhc.noaa.gov, so an internet connection is needed to view them.
Method item
| Period | 1950–2025 for headline figures (1851–2025 retained as a sensitivity check in the original research report). |
| Storm class | Hurricanes only for the main index, defined as Category 1+ / sustained winds ≥64 kt. |
| Primary threshold | 100 miles from the representative destination point to the hurricane-strength storm centre. |
| Metric unit | Unique storm-days rather than raw six-hourly fixes, to avoid over-counting a storm that lingers near a destination. |
| Formula | daily_risk = hurricane_affected_days / total_calendar_days_in_month_across_period5_night_risk = 1 - (1 - daily_risk)^5 |
| Caveat | Historical proximity analysis, not a weather forecast. Passing within 100 miles does not mean a direct hit, landfall, or guaranteed trip disruption. |
Sources
| NHC Atlantic HURDAT2 | nhc.noaa.gov/data — core dataset for historical hurricane track data (1851–2025 best-track file, updated Feb 27, 2026 to include the 2025 season). |
| NHC climatology | nhc.noaa.gov/climo — seasonality context (Sept 10 climatological peak; mid-Aug to mid-Oct peak activity). |
| NOAA/NCEI IBTrACS | ncei.noaa.gov — secondary validation / metadata source. |
| Deep Research report | Caribbean Honeymoon Hurricane Risk Index Research Report.pdf — source of the original 22-destination dataset. |
The provided destinations came directly from that research report. The computed destinations were added by pulling the live HURDAT2 best-track file and applying the same formula and 100-mile / 1950–2025 / hurricane-only parameters; a spot-check against several of the original destinations (e.g. Barbados) reproduced the provided figures exactly, confirming methodology consistency.